12/09/2019
There is clearly a lot to be considered from the Yellowhammer report, including the question about redactions and missing bullet points.
However, my interest has initially been pricked by the expectation of protests and counter protests, drawing on significant police resources. It would appear that the proposed increases in police numbers, which only serves to address the cutbacks over the last decade or so, would be the minimum required to deal with the expected increase in public disorder and civil unrest resulting from the UK's departure from the EU; especially in the case of a no-deal Brexit.
Give that the recruitment of 20,000 additional police officers is not something that can be achieved overnight, what (I wonder) will be the short term strategy for dealing with such civil unrest?
Are we going to see the introduction of marshal law on the streets of Britain?
Newspapers reported in January that the government was examining the possibility of martial law, if food and medical shortages spark civil disobedience and rioting following a no-deal Brexit.
The Sunday Times had a source who confirmed that planners were using the disruption caused by the volcanic ash in Iceland during 2010 as a model for possible disorder. However, the source emphasised that:
"There is nothing that can replicate the scale of chaos threatened by a no-deal Brexit, which will be about a thousand times worse than the volcanic ash cloud crisis. The only thing that would be comparable would be something like a major Europe-wide war."
It was reported that the health secretary, Matt Hancock, had confirmed the government was investigating plans to impose martial law and curfews in the event of a no deal Brexit. Although, it does seem that Hancock was struggling to answer questions on the Andrew Marr Show and wasn't meaning to imply that such measures were inevitable.
Nonetheless, it is a very real possibility.
Martial law would enable Boris Johnson's government to impose direct military control of civilian functions usually run by the state. In the event of a no-deal Brexit, martial law could be declared to control civil disobedience and rioting caused by food and medical shortages, which seem inevitable. The government has been keen to play down the risks of such shortages, but it is clear that the government has again been misleading the country about such matters.
Troops could be used occupy towns and cities, and would patrol key sites such as council and government buildings, power stations, airports hospitals, financial institutions and other places which could be likely targets for protestors or saboteurs.
Military checkpoints could be set up, with soldiers given powers to stop and search anyone they suspect could be involved in or planning acts of unrest or rebellion. Civilians might be obliged to carry ID documents to prove who they are as they go about their daily lives.
Military-enforced curfews could be declared banning people from moving out of designated areas or even leaving their homes during certain times. A night-time curfew could mean streets become deserted after a certain time, apart from soldiers who would arrest on the stop anyone caught defying the order. The impact upon bars, restaurants and night clubs (as just a few examples) could be significant.
Anyone caught encouraging or taking part in civil disobedience, disobeying or obstructing instructions could be immediately detained.
Germany and Japan imposed martial law during the post World War II construction. Martial law was imposed in Poland in December 1981 and stayed in place for approximately 18 months. It was introduced to prevent the opposition from gaining more power. Thousands of members of opposition organisations were jailed overnight without any charges, while many restrictions were imposed including a a curfew, postal censorship, telephone lines were disconnected, and citizens were prevented from travelling.
Britain declared martial law in Ireland in April 1916, to maintain order during the Easter Rising.
Much as we might think martial law would not be used to take such control, it is possible and the risk posed by a no-deal Brexit means it is something we should not ignore.
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